A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
